Human and Machine Intelligence Distributions, 1900-2035
Year-by-year evolution of two normal distributions. Human population is centered at IQ 100; machine population shifts as capability becomes accessible through computing devices.
Dashed machine curve marks projected years, 2026-2035. The animation uses modeled anchors so the shape can be read over time.
Human IQ distribution
Standard normal-distribution model centered at 100, SD 15.
Machine IQ bucket distribution snapshots
Computing entities by IQ-equivalent bucket for selected years.
Counts span many orders of magnitude; the stacked bars are directional snapshots.
Description
This module separates the distribution comparison from the frontier capability chart. It asks how the whole machine population moves, not just the leading edge.
Methodology
Human IQ is modeled as a normal distribution. Machine distribution buckets are reconstructed by year across computing entities.
Data
All chart files for this module are local to this research folder.
- computing-population-distribution.csv
- computing-population-distribution.xlsx
- human-iq-distribution.csv
- human-iq-distribution.xlsx
Sources
- UN World Population Prospects 2024 Human population baseline.
- Stanford-Binet and Wechsler norms Human IQ-distribution calibration.
- IoT Analytics connected-device estimates Connected-device population context.
- Gartner and IDC device trackers Computing-device installed-base estimates.
Limitations
IQ-equivalent buckets are imperfect proxies for machine capability. The chart should be read as a capability metaphor with structured data behind it.